The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 362. CRE Earnings Show Market Resilience, CMBS Issuance Nears $120B, 50-Year Mortgage Debate, & More
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Nov 14, 2025 This week, lawmakers are racing against a government shutdown while a 50-year mortgage proposal raises questions about affordability and systemic risk. Brokerage earnings show a surprising resilience in the commercial real estate market despite looming distress. Amazon makes headlines with a $700 million land purchase for new data centers, indicating strong demand. The hosts also discuss the fallout from Sonder's bankruptcy, impacting Marriott’s licensing decisions. Plus, updates on CMBS issuance and key multifamily transactions reveal ongoing market developments.
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Slow-Motion Cycle And Winners Identified
- The CRE cycle is slow and cautious with pricing discovery happening in "slow motion."
- Winners are assets with pricing power like data centers and logistics, while underwriting stays tight.
50-Year Mortgage Risks And Limits
- A 50-year mortgage lowers monthly payments but shifts duration and prepayment risk onto lenders and taxpayers.
- It may inflate prices without fixing housing supply or affordability structurally.
AI Concentrates Value In Power-Rich Land
- AI drives enormous upfront capex for compute and power, concentrating value in sites with power, permits, and fiber.
- AI benefits select land and industrial niches but won't be a free lunch for margins.