The Morning Edition Inside Politics: How does polling work and will it be right this time?
Apr 24, 2025
David Crowe, chief political correspondent, and Jim Reed, who runs the Resolve Political Monitor poll, dive into the complexities of political polling. They discuss how polling methodologies have evolved since errors in the 2019 election. Insightfully, they explore the challenges of representing diverse demographics and the importance of random sampling. With a close look at current voter sentiment, they warn of tight races influenced by economic changes, revealing how polls can shape and sometimes miss the true electorate mood.
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Polling Methodology Explained
- Modern polling uses online research panels with set quotas for demographic balance.
- Weighting adjusts sample data to achieve national representativeness and deeper issue insights.
No Undecided Option
- Removing the undecided vote option mimics real election choices to improve accuracy.
- This adaptation was a direct response to polling failures in the 2019 election.
Polls Reflect Electorate Mood
- Polls gauge electorate mood by asking about leaders’ performance, issues, and policies.
- They help counter political spin by reflecting broader community opinions beyond anecdote.