Simplifying Complexity Predicting power grid failure
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Dec 25, 2023 Seth Blumsack, Professor of Energy Policy and Economics, discusses the complexity of power grid blackouts. He explores unconventional failures, network theories, and power laws. The podcast dives into equipment vulnerabilities, transmission grid analysis, and the Texas blackouts in 2021.
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Western US Blackout Hopscotch
- A major western U.S. blackout started when overloaded equipment shut down to protect itself.
- Failures then strangely hopscotched geographically rather than cascading in adjacent steps.
Topology Models Limitations
- Many network failure models rely on physical topology and neighboring connections.
- These models do not accurately predict power grid blackouts due to complex power flow dynamics.
Influence Graphs Reveal True Grid Structure
- Power grid structure can be defined physically or by electrical influence and capacity.
- Mapping failures via an influence graph better predicts cascading behaviors than physical topology.