Jude Blanchette, Head of the China Center at RAND, and Ryan Hass, a Brookings Institution Fellow and former China policy expert, delve into the vital U.S.-China relationship dynamics. They discuss Trump's tariff threats and military concerns in the Taiwan Strait while contemplating a potential 'grand bargain' between Trump and Xi. The conversation highlights the risks of American decline and the complexities of assessing China's growing influence amid shifting geopolitical realities, including its ties with Europe and Russia.
The U.S.-China relationship is marked by a complex interplay of military assertiveness and mixed signals from President Trump.
Experts stress the need for balanced assessments of both U.S. and Chinese strengths to avoid misconceptions about power dynamics.
China's recent foreign policy reflects an assertive stance, prioritizing respect over affection to bolster its strategic objectives.
Deep dives
Dynamic U.S.-China Relationship
The U.S. and China have an interconnected relationship that often leads to negative consequences for both parties due to a constant action-reaction dynamic. As tensions escalated, President Trump threatened to impose larger tariffs on China amidst increased military assertiveness from Beijing in regions like Taiwan and the South China Sea. This complicated backdrop leaves both countries grappling with uncertainty, as Trump's mixed messaging regarding China perplexes observers and analysts alike. The bilateral relationship remains the most consequential globally, yet recent developments have only added layers of complexity to this already fraught situation.
Assessing Power Dynamics
Experts emphasize the importance of accurately assessing both U.S. and Chinese strengths and weaknesses, cautioning against the risks of extremes in perception. Historically, narratives shifted rapidly between viewing China as destined to surpass the U.S. to portraying it as in decline. This erratic evaluation not only obscures the reality of the current power balance but also fails to facilitate constructive dialogue on comparisons of capabilities. Engaging with this nuanced understanding will aid in recognizing the risks inherent in underestimating either country’s position.
China's Domestic Perceptions
Chinese observers perceive their nation’s strategic position as more resilient than often portrayed by Western analysts, despite acknowledging challenges such as economic stresses and political rigidity. While Western assessments frequently highlight China's stagnation, the Chinese government seems undeterred by these criticisms and continues with its established policies. The belief that the U.S. is in decline, particularly after tumultuous events like January 6th, reinforces a narrative of Chinese unity and strength following a period of perceived American instability. This mindset underpins their foreign policy, suggesting a cautious yet confident approach in navigating international relations.
China's Assertive Foreign Policy
China’s recent foreign policy has moved towards assertiveness, reflecting a belief that it is advantageous to be perceived as a power that commands respect rather than affection. The nation exhibits confidence in its military capabilities, as displayed through aggressive posturing in contested regions such as the South China Sea. Chinese leadership indicates a readiness to leverage coercive power while accepting potential reputational costs to achieve strategic objectives. This shift may stem from a belief in a newly favorable international landscape, where assertiveness is viewed as a necessary component for national strength.
Uncertainty in U.S. Engagement
The current unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy has left allies and adversaries in a state of uncertainty regarding future engagements with China. The Biden administration's initially harder-line approach has led to a lack of clarity about the administration’s objectives, creating anxiety, particularly among key U.S. allies in Asia. While military threats loom, the level of urgency to engage directly with Taiwan reflects a careful weighing of risks versus benefits from the U.S. perspective. This precarious balance illustrates the broader strategic challenge inherent in navigating an increasingly complex global landscape.
Two months into U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, the U.S.-Chinese relationship—the most consequential one in the world by a long stretch—faces new uncertainty. Trump has threatened larger tariffs as China has continued its military buildup and activities in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. But Trump has also focused his ire on allied capitals, rather than on Beijing, and talked about making a deal with his “very good friend” Xi Jinping.
In a recent essay for Foreign Affairs, Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass stressed the importance, and highlighted the challenge, of understanding the balance of power with America’s top rival. The biggest risk, they argue, is not that Washington will underestimate China’s strength, but that it will neglect the sources of its own.
Blanchette runs the China Research Center at the RAND Corporation; Hass, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, long worked on China policy at the National Security Council and State Department. They joined editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan to discuss Beijing’s assessment of American power, the prospects for a “grand bargain” between Trump and Xi, and whether fears of American decline risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
