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The Foreign Affairs Interview

Where Is the U.S.-China Relationship Headed?

Mar 27, 2025
Jude Blanchette, Head of the China Center at RAND, and Ryan Hass, a Brookings Institution Fellow and former China policy expert, delve into the vital U.S.-China relationship dynamics. They discuss Trump's tariff threats and military concerns in the Taiwan Strait while contemplating a potential 'grand bargain' between Trump and Xi. The conversation highlights the risks of American decline and the complexities of assessing China's growing influence amid shifting geopolitical realities, including its ties with Europe and Russia.
52:13

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Quick takeaways

  • The U.S.-China relationship is marked by a complex interplay of military assertiveness and mixed signals from President Trump.
  • Experts stress the need for balanced assessments of both U.S. and Chinese strengths to avoid misconceptions about power dynamics.

Deep dives

Dynamic U.S.-China Relationship

The U.S. and China have an interconnected relationship that often leads to negative consequences for both parties due to a constant action-reaction dynamic. As tensions escalated, President Trump threatened to impose larger tariffs on China amidst increased military assertiveness from Beijing in regions like Taiwan and the South China Sea. This complicated backdrop leaves both countries grappling with uncertainty, as Trump's mixed messaging regarding China perplexes observers and analysts alike. The bilateral relationship remains the most consequential globally, yet recent developments have only added layers of complexity to this already fraught situation.

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