Global liquidity has surged to $170 trillion, emphasizing the shift towards a refinancing system for debt rollovers.
Collateralized lending with quality assets like government bonds is crucial for liquidity and borrowing capacity.
Deep dives
The Concept of Global Liquidity and Financial System Evolution
Global liquidity, defined as the flow of cash and credit through financial markets, has surged to $170 trillion due to factors like COVID-19 and central bank interventions. A key theme is the shift from a new financing system to a refinancing system, where debt rollovers are crucial. Liquidity includes various instruments beyond traditional money aggregates, emphasizing the importance of balance sheet capacity and debt refinancing.
Importance of Collateral in Financial Markets
Collateralized lending, with assets like government bonds as core collateral, plays a vital role in providing liquidity. The quality of collateral impacts borrowing capacity, with good collateral like government securities being essential. Changes in collateral prices, like government bond declines, directly affect credit availability and financial stability.
Collateral Shortages and Global Financial Dynamics
A shortage of high-quality collateral is evident in the financial system, exacerbated by reduced government bond issuance and central bank quantitative easing. This scarcity poses challenges for financial institutions in balancing debt rollovers and maintaining liquidity. Term premia, reflecting bond risk premiums, are at historical lows due to collateral shortages, impacting bond yields and financial market stability.
Geopolitical Capital Wars and the Role of US-China Dynamics
The global financial landscape is witnessing a capital war between the US and China, involving efforts to control liquidity and financial dominance. China aims to challenge the US dollar supremacy by promoting the RMB as a primary currency and expanding its financial sector. Geopolitical tensions, including trade and investment restrictions, reflect the broader struggle for influence in capital markets and monetary systems.
Michael Howell, legendary market strategist, author and founder of CrossBorder Capital, joins our Keeper Russell Napier to discuss global liquidity. Join us for a thought-provoking episode that seasoned investors and knowledgable market observers will enjoy getting their teeth stuck into.
For more information on the Advanced Valuation in Financial Markets course mentioned by Russell, please see www.didaskoeducation.org.
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