Redefining Energy 191. “How Big Things Get Done” with Pr. Bent Flyvbjerg (hosted by Michael Barnard)
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Aug 18, 2025 Bent Flyvbjerg, a leading expert on megaprojects and author of How Big Things Get Done, shares eye-opening insights from his analysis of over 16,000 projects. He reveals that a staggering 99.5% fail to meet expectations in budget, timeline, or benefits. Flyvbjerg discusses the superiority of modular successes like the Tesla Gigafactory over complex projects like nuclear plants. He emphasizes the importance of risk management and data-driven decision-making in driving successful outcomes, especially in the renewable energy sector.
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Data Over Anecdote
- Flyvbjerg's team built a 16,000-project database to reveal statistically valid megaproject patterns.
- High-quality, validated data expose base rates that practitioners often ignore.
The 0.5% Iron Law
- Only 0.5% of megaprojects meet budget, schedule, and benefit targets simultaneously.
- That base rate defines the real odds for planning and must shape decisions before committing funds.
Thin vs Fat Tail Project Classes
- Project types show distinct statistical distributions: thin-tailed ones are manageable, fat-tailed ones produce extreme overruns.
- Solar, wind and transmission are thin-tailed and scale well; nuclear and IT show fat tails and extreme risk.
