Decarbonization Dilemmas

This is a re-release of the legendary interview by Michael Barnard of Pr Bent Flyvbjerg on our sister show ”Redefining Energy Tech” Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, an expert on megaprojects and author of How Big Things Get Done, shares insights from a database of over 16,000 projects, revealing that 99.5% fail to meet expectations in budget, timeline, or benefits.

He stresses the value of learning from successful projects, especially in renewable energy, where solar, wind, and transmission projects outperform nuclear power, which suffers from regulatory hurdles and skill shortages.

Flyvbjerg introduces key concepts like modularity, repeatability, and the “window of doom”—the critical early phase when delays can derail projects. He contrasts fast, modular successes like the Tesla Gigafactory with slow, complex projects like nuclear plants and the Olympics.

The episode also compares pumped hydro and battery storage, highlighting the role of risk management, stakeholder alignment, and using data-based heuristics to guide project decisions. Listeners are encouraged to understand base rates, study variance charts (especially Chapter 9 of Flyvbjerg's book), and develop their own heuristics for better megaproject outcomes.