Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry [REPLAY] Annie Duke – Thinking More in Bets (Capital Allocators, EP.76)
Apr 20, 2020
Annie Duke, a decision-making expert and former world-class poker player, shares her fascinating insights on navigating uncertainty. She discusses the challenge of separating valuable information from noise in decision-making and the importance of collaborative thought. Duke highlights cognitive biases, particularly confirmation bias, and promotes a culture of open communication in teams. She shares compelling anecdotes from her poker days, particularly about being a woman in a male-dominated field, wrapping up with lessons from the intersection of poker and strategic decisions.
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Learning from Noise
- Learning in noisy environments, like language acquisition or poker, shares similarities with decision-making.
- The challenge lies in filtering noise from signal to identify meaningful feedback and improve learning.
Noise in Poker Outcomes
- Outcomes in poker are noisy, making it difficult to assess decision quality.
- Winning or losing doesn't directly equate to good or bad decisions due to luck and other factors.
Decisions as Bets
- Every decision is a bet based on beliefs, which can be facts or predictions.
- These beliefs inform our bets and shape how we process information, leading to biases.
