Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Dec 9, 2024
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Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins, delve into shifting dynamics in the Middle East following potential changes in Syria. They discuss the implications of the Assad regime's possible fall and how it could reshape political and security landscapes. The conversation also highlights Iran’s evolving foreign policy, especially amid U.S. changes, and the new alliances forming in the region, showcasing a future marked by uncertainty and adaptation.
The potential end of Bashar al-Assad's regime marks a critical shift in Syria, prompting discussions on future governance and regional stability.
Iran's waning influence in the Middle East necessitates a strategic reassessment of its security stance amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics.
Deep dives
Dramatic Shift in Syria's Landscape
Recent developments in Syria indicate a significant turning point, as Syrian rebels have reportedly entered Damascus, marking a potential end to Bashar al-Assad's regime. After thirteen years of civil war, the collapse of Assad's support, particularly from Iran and Russia, is now evident, creating an opportunity for the rebels to seize control. The rapid territorial gains made by the rebels from Idlib to the capital city reflect not only a military shift but also the crumbling credibility of the Assad regime. This situation raises questions about the future governance of Syria and the complex challenges that will arise as the country attempts to rebuild.
Iran's Diminished Influence
Iran's regional power dynamics have undergone a transformation following recent events in Syria and its broader engagement in the Middle East. The country's influence seems to be waning, especially as its support for entities like Hezbollah has diminished due to internal challenges and war fatigue. The collapse of the Syrian regime's stability indicates a need for a strategic reassessment regarding Iran's security approach, as the notion of the 'axis of resistance' loses its effectiveness. Consequently, Iran may pivot towards developing advanced military technologies, including a potential accelerated nuclear program, as a means to enhance its defensive posture.
Implications of a Trump Administration on Middle Eastern Dynamics
The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could reshape the Middle East's geopolitical landscape, particularly in relation to Iran and Israeli-Palestinian relations. Trump appears to have intentions of negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran, presenting opportunities for diplomatic engagement that were not fully realized during his first term. However, mixed signals and a largely pro-Israel advisory team could complicate these objectives, raising concerns about military conflict versus negotiations. Ultimately, regional actors, especially Saudi Arabia, seem inclined to foster stability and might leverage their relationship with Trump to moderate U.S.-Iran tensions.
Regional Relationships and Future Scenarios
The dynamics among Middle Eastern countries, particularly between Iran, Israel, and Arab states, are shifting in response to recent upheavals. Arab monarchies, wary of potential instability reminiscent of the Arab Spring, are now re-evaluating their strategies in light of evolving situations in Syria and Iraq. While there is a desire among Gulf states to prevent an escalation of conflict, they also recognize the necessity of engaging with Iran to secure mutual interests. As leaders contemplate the prospects of normalization with Israel and balancing interactions with Iran, the potential for regional collaboration may emerge amidst ongoing challenges.
Given the turbulence across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, conversations at this year’s Doha Forum highlighted a Middle East region, and a world order, in flux. Now the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the upcoming Donald Trump administration will shape American relations in the Middle East – and changing regional priorities and dynamics will likely impact the future international order.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, Majid Khadduri professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, to discuss the Middle East and changing global dynamics. How might the fall of the Assad regime reshape the region’s political and security landscape? What does the development mean for Syria? And how are regional powers adapting to the uncertainty of the second Trump administration?