Speaker 3
And why don't you, given that these events in Syria are happening, things might have developed further on. It's Saturday night here in Doha. But do you want to start by talking about that? And then we can maybe look at some of the wider regional developments
Speaker 2
and also just share some of the gossip that we're picking up here in Doha. Sure, Mark. Well, thanks for having me and great to be here in Doha. As you say, it's Saturday night. And remarkably, Syrian rebels have now entered Damascus, having essentially broken out of Idlib. A week ago, they have stormed right across the country, Aleppo, Hama. They've moved around Homs. They may take it in the coming hours. And now they're moving in on the capital city of Damascus. And Assad, really, it seems like his days are over. Thirteen years after this brutal, devastating civil war broke out, yesterday, the Iranians basically said, we're not going to come and help you. We heard Lavrov today here in the Doha forum, essentially not paying attention to Syria, not wanting to talk about it. They too seem to have given up on Assad and walked away. So Assad is now in the capital. We don't know if there will be a last stand. Obviously, we hope that the final battle, the final end can be peaceful after all the brutality and the violence. There's some tragic irony in the sense that rebels are now almost putting the capital city under siege after Assad himself so brutally besieged so many of the rebel communities over the last 13 years. So we're at a moment of dramatic transformation. And look, I mean, the pathway ahead for Syria is daunting. And this is not, we've seen the regime collapse, the rebels take over, but there are a million ways that this or a million kind of things that need to be overcome to get this right going forward. But clearly, this is a dramatic, dramatic moment for Syria and for the wider region. And it speaks to so much in terms of where Iran is since over the last year and the war with Israel, whether Russians are their priorities. The West is not being talked about. There is no Western role in what's happening in the Syria development. So it's a remarkable moment. And who knows where we will be by the time this comes out. But Assad may well be gone. He may have retreated to the coast. A brutal battle may have opened up in Damascus as the regime tries to salvage something. But we are in a new era when it comes to Syria. So this is not something that people
Speaker 3
were predicting when we were talking about all the other crazy things that are going on in the region. In a way, you know, with hindsight, it does look like a bit of a perfect storm if you link up all the different theatres and things that were going on. Maybe you could sort of deconstruct it a bit because he did look like he was part of the furniture of the Middle East for a very long period of time. A lot of people had overestimated the strength of the rebels when the Arab uprising started. But for him to fall like a house of cards like that is really
Speaker 2
quite incredible. It's remarkable. And it's not as if the rebels have had huge force. The regime has crumbled. It's a function of regime, the complete structural collapse of the regime. He's had so many opportunities to make deals with outsiders to try and get the situation better. He could have made a deal with Turkey that probably would have avoided this outcome. But because he wanted it all, he didn't do that. Obviously, the Iranians have been distracted by the war with Israel and what's happened to Hezbollah. The Russians clearly distracted by Ukraine and all of that. So this is reflective of broader dynamics. But clearly, we didn't see it coming. If you'd asked anyone a week ago, could the rebels take Aleppo? They would have
Speaker 3
now they're in Damascus. So it really is. And how much of it is about Hezbollah being weakened? Because that was obviously one of the biggest fighting forces. It's
Speaker 2
everything. I mean, it's Hezbollah. It's the fact that the Iranians aren't being able to send militias from Iraq, as it was mentioned. The Russian air force is not being deployed. I mean, I think there's been a political choice in Iran and Russia, which, you know, on the Iranian side, Ali and Ali can speak to. But they have made a political decision not to come back in beside the rebels. If Assad won the civil war up until recently, he won it because of Russian and Iranian support, not because his army was any good. And so without that, everything crumbles.