The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Political Change in Madagascar and Kenya
Oct 22, 2025
Holly Berkley Fletcher, a former senior CIA Africa analyst, shares her deep expertise on Madagascar and Kenya's political upheavals. She analyzes the rapid coup in Madagascar, tied to weak institutions and an elite military's mutiny against President Rajoelina. The discussion also delves into Raila Odinga's legacy as a prominent opposition leader in Kenya and how his recent death could reshape the political landscape, creating a vacuum and opportunities for new leadership amidst rising youth protests.
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Rapid Coup Fueled By Infrastructure Failures
- Madagascar's coup unfolded rapidly from youth-led protests over power and water cuts to a military mutiny that met little resistance.
- The mutiny leader claims elections within two years despite the high court urging a 60-day constitutional timeline.
Weak Institutions Make Coups Recurrent
- Weak institutions and a history of precedent make Madagascar coup-prone, with the military often the strongest institution.
- Once coups occur, they create a repeatable pattern that normalizes further military interventions.
Diminished External Leverage Over Juntas
- Regional bodies like SADC and the AU may suspend Madagascar but now lack the leverage they once had.
- External actors such as UAE, China, Russia, and diminished French influence complicate pressure on the junta.