Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth Why Your 2026 Financial Plan Needs 3 Scenarios (Not 1)
10 snips
Nov 6, 2025 
In this discussion, Taylor Holiday, CEO of Common Thread Collective and an e-commerce forecasting expert, emphasizes the need for businesses to prepare financial plans with three scenarios: Board, Budget, and Bonus. He highlights the importance of early planning during the holiday season, offering insights on aligning marketing calendars with financial goals. Taylor explains how to forecast revenue from both retention and new customers, and discusses the value of external partners in enhancing forecasting accuracy, ultimately guiding businesses toward better decision-making for 2026.
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Plan Three Distinct Financial Scenarios
- Build three financial scenarios: board (or bank), budget, and bonus to serve different stakeholders.
- Use the budget as your 50th percentile cash-flow plan, the board as a conservative threshold, and the bonus as an aspirational chase goal.
Preparing For A Board Meeting During Execution
- Taylor describes preparing for a Nov 18 board meeting to lock 2026 goals while running day-to-day operations.
- That dual pressure reflects the common year-end planning crunch many brands face.
Model Existing Versus New Revenue Separately
- Forecast by separating existing-customer revenue (retention) from new-customer revenue (acquisition).
- That separation reveals how much fixed cost your returning customer base supports and informs acquisition aggressiveness.