Joshua Lynn, President of Piedmont Media Research, discusses the research studios use to green-light movies based on what audiences want. Topics include predictions on Denzel Washington's box office potential and a Netflix stock price forecast.
Studios rely on audience research to green-light movies based on consumer preferences and star power.
Early tracking and consumer engagement research are crucial for assessing movie concepts' viability and audience reception.
Notable actors like Denzel Washington can significantly impact audience interest and project marketability.
Deep dives
Predicting Movie Success with Data Analysis
Studios utilize strategies like betting on past successful filmmakers and stars, creating films with reliable genres and established IP, and leveraging audience research and consumer surveys to reduce project risk. Early tracking and consumer engagement research play a significant role in determining movie concepts' viability and potential audience reception, aiding in decision-making for budget allocation and casting choices.
The Role of Consumer Engagement Metrics in Film Production Decisions
Piedmont Media Research conducts early-stage concept testing for studios by assessing the audience's connection to movie ideas. Their consumer engagement metric shows a strong correlation (0.74) to a film's opening weekend box office success. This metric aids studios in evaluating audience interest and deciding on casting, budget allocation, and project viability based on consumer feedback.
Influence of Actors on Consumer Engagement Scores
Notable actors like Denzel Washington and Tom Holland have demonstrated the potential to increase consumer engagement scores for projects they are associated with. Their roles and the alignment of their star power with the project's concept significantly impact audience interest. The assessment of actors' influence helps studios in gauging the expected value and marketability of films.
Netflix Stock Performance and Market Predictions
Despite market fluctuations, Netflix's stock has shown resilience and upward momentum post-correction periods. The company's potential pivot to advertisements and the market's confidence in its growth trajectory have positively influenced its stock performance. Predictions suggest a potential reversion to pre-correction stock prices in the near future, reflecting the company's adaptability and market appeal.
Netflix's Resilience and Market Comparisons
Netflix's stock resilience amidst industry challenges and competition highlights its adaptability and growth prospects. While traditional Hollywood studios face stagnation in stock prices, Netflix's strategic initiatives like ad integration present promising outcomes. The company's market standing and investor confidence indicate a favorable outlook for future stock performance and growth opportunities.
Matt is joined by Joshua Lynn, the president of Piedmont Media Research, to discuss the research studios use to determine what people want out of their movies and how to give it to him. Before the movie is green-lit, studios use research to know if people want a new tornado movie, or a biopic about Robert Oppenheimer, or how Denzel Washington will elevate a project's box office potential (02:43). Matt finishes the show with a prediction about Netflix’s stock price (25:32).
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