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The UK Election: 7. What Can Polling Predict?
Jun 17, 2024
Professor Jane Green, Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre at Oxford University, discusses the significance of opinion polling in politics, trends in UK election polls since 2019, and interpreting polling data for smaller political parties. The episode explores the challenges of predicting election outcomes and the use of polls for decision-making by political parties.
14:18
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Quick takeaways
- Interpreting polling trends is crucial for understanding party performance.
- Utilizing polling data aids political parties in strategic decision-making during elections.
Deep dives
Opinion Polls in UK Elections
The episode delves into the art and science of opinion polling in UK elections. Over a discussion with Professor Jane Green, they highlight the importance of understanding the trend in poll results, especially indicating a significant downward trend for the Conservative Party since 2019 due to various economic factors and shifts in voter trust. The conversation emphasizes the importance of interpreting polling data accurately, considering the divergence in predictions for party leaders and the strategic significance of party support distribution, particularly for minor parties like the Lib Dems and the Greens.
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