This week explores the decline of American shopping malls due to e-commerce's rise, investigating how they can adapt and reinvent themselves. The growing ‘silver tsunami’ reveals a pressing need for senior living facilities as the population over 80 surges. Discussions also delve into the impact of potentially eliminating the Department of Education and its effects on public schooling. Finally, the importance of mental health care and early therapy engagement is emphasized for overall wellness, especially in stressful times.
The decline of American shopping malls, exacerbated by e-commerce growth, necessitates a shift towards innovative adaptation and repurposing efforts for survival.
With the aging population leading to a significant demand for senior housing, the sector faces challenges in inventory supply and rising construction costs, presenting both risks and opportunities for investors.
Deep dives
The Decline of Shopping Malls
Shopping malls across the U.S. are facing a significant decline, with many seeing a sharp drop in foot traffic and tenancy rates. The Berkshire Mall in Pennsylvania, once bustling during the holiday season, now has around 60% occupancy, illustrating this trend. Analysts note that American malls are oversupplied, particularly in comparison to other regions like Europe and Asia, where retail space per capita is much lower. While not all malls are expected to close, there are clear distinctions in performance between Class A, B, and C malls, leading to calls for restructuring and repurposing efforts.
The E-commerce Shift
The rise of e-commerce has drastically impacted traditional retail, with consumer shopping behavior shifting significantly towards online platforms. E-commerce sales increased from about 10% to 30% prior to the pandemic, then surged to a staggering 70% during COVID-19 lockdowns. As brick-and-mortar stores reopen, the e-commerce market has leveled off to about 40-50%, prompting discussions about a potential revival of physical retail spaces. However, for many malls to succeed, they must adapt to the changing landscape, blending e-commerce with in-person experiences.
Impending Surge in Senior Housing Demand
The United States is poised to experience a significant increase in demand for senior living accommodations due to its aging population, with projections indicating over 32 million individuals aged 80 and older by 2050. Companies like Merrill Gardens are looking to capitalize on this demand by providing comprehensive support services, including social interactions, which are crucial for residents' well-being. The increase in wealth among seniors further amplifies the ability to pay for high-quality living situations, enhancing business prospects in the senior housing sector. However, there are challenges regarding supply and construction costs that could hinder development efforts.
Challenges Facing the Senior Housing Sector
Despite the rising demand for senior housing, developers are currently grappling with a significant shortfall in inventory, exacerbated by inflation and increased interest rates affecting construction costs. As senior housing construction lags behind the accelerating growth of the aging population, a projected $275 billion gap looms in the sector's development. This situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for investors looking to enter the market for senior living spaces. Ultimately, addressing the supply issue while meeting the demand for quality care could lead to substantial benefits for society.
This week, we ask whether America's shopping centers are dying. Plus, a look at the so-called 'silver tsunami' as America's 80+ population growth rate exceeds the senior housing inventory, and we look at the future of the Department of Education.