The CFO Rule for AI Forecasting: “It’s Not Zero” | Dan Griggs

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Dan Griggs, CFO of Intercom, to break down how finance leaders should think about pricing, forecasting, and resource allocation in the AI era. Dan explains why “it’s not zero” is his guiding forecasting principle, how Intercom landed on 99 cents per AI resolution for Fin, and what it means to build an AI product that could eventually cannibalize a successful SaaS core. A candid look at managing uncertainty while still making bold bets.

—

SPONSORS:

Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com

Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj

Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run

Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai

—

LINKS:

Dan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-griggs-0970181/

Intercom: https://www.intercom.com/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

—

RELATED EPISODES:

Inside Rocket Companies: M&A, Metrics, and Mortgage Moats | Brian Brown

https://youtu.be/ttedn4AULt8

—

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Cold Open

00:01:03 Intro to Dan Griggs and Intercom’s AI Pivot

00:02:45 From Ice Cream to SaaS: Early Finance Lessons

00:04:19 Learning the Business by Living the Operations

00:06:26 Why Operational Reality Shapes Better Forecasts

00:08:00 “It’s Not Zero”: Forecasting the Unknowable

00:10:09 Scenario Planning, Ambiguity, and Psychological Safety

00:11:23 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev

00:14:43 Keeping a Mental Model of Key Business Metrics

00:16:15 Using Mental Math to Sanity-Check Forecasts

00:17:28 Core Ratios Every CFO Uses to Vet Decisions

00:19:13 The Burn-the-Boats Moment for Intercom’s AI Pivot

00:20:53 Why AI Was an Existential, Not Incremental, Bet

00:22:21 Which SaaS Categories AI Can Fully Replace Work

00:23:04 Why Finance Hasn’t Had Its AI Moment Yet

00:23:39 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacum

00:27:05 Why Fin Needed Outcome-Based Pricing

00:28:59 The Tradeoff Behind $0.99 Per Resolution

00:30:46 Why Support Conversations Vary in Complexity

00:32:01 What Drives the Unit Economics of AI Resolutions

00:33:08 How Intercom Chooses Models as Costs Fall

00:35:19 Replacing Generic LLMs With Domain-Specific Models

00:36:08 Selling an AI Product That Could Cannibalize the Core

00:38:50 Founder CEOs Versus Professional CEOs

00:41:47 Hiring Mistakes and Acting on Instincts

00:44:28 Intercom’s Finance Software Stack

00:45:49 The Craziest Expense Request

#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Intercom #AICustomerSupport #OutcomeBasedPricing #CFOInsights