U.S. Economic Growth Forecast

The outlook for U.S. economic growth remains robust, with expectations for 2025 set at 2.5%, slightly down from 2.8% in 2024. The growth trajectory is supported by a significant increase in real disposable personal income, driven by a faster decline in price inflation compared to wage inflation, leading to a rise in real hourly wages. Financial conditions have improved, shifting from a headwind to a tailwind for growth, contributing an estimated half percentage point boost to the economy. Despite potential policy shifts under the new Trump administration, which include tariff increases and immigration slowdowns, the overall sentiment on growth remains optimistic.