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Tariffs and Economic Impact
This chapter explores the potential effects of tariff policy changes on economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy, highlighting a 15% chance of recession in the next year. It covers the implications for U.S. assets, the dollar's expected appreciation, and a cautious outlook on global markets, particularly for Europe and emerging markets. The discussion includes strategies for investors to navigate these risks, emphasizing diversification and the role of non-U.S. bonds.