The Angle from T. Rowe Price Beyond Luck — Behavioral Science and the Art of Decision Making with Annie Duke
Sep 30, 2025
Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and bestselling author on decision science, joins Justin Thomson to explore the intricate art of decision making. She discusses the distinction between epistemic uncertainty and luck, emphasizing how recognizing these can enhance long-term performance. Duke compares poker strategies to investment tactics, highlighting biases like the self-serving bias in both fields. She also reveals why quitting can be a strategic asset, the dangers of doubling down on losses, and how AI can mistakenly reinforce biases in decision-making.
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Two Types Of Uncertainty
- Every decision faces two uncertainties: limited knowledge and luck.
- Accepting both lets you choose better probabilistic options and outperform competitors over time.
Beware Total Conviction
- Total conviction in investments is usually mistaken because outcomes mix skill and luck.
- Seeing clearly what you know and how luck affects results produces better long-term performance.
Self-Serving Bias Hides True Performance
- Self-serving bias makes us credit wins to skill and blame losses on luck.
- That distortion hides true performance and impedes learning.
