What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?
Mar 8, 2025
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In this discussion, Berkay Mandıracı, a Turkey expert, Lahib Higel, an Iraq analyst, and Dareen Khalifa, a senior dialogue advisor, dive into the implications of the PKK's ceasefire declaration. They dissect the motivations behind Turkey's initiative and its effects on the PKK's leadership in Iraq. The conversation also encompasses how this ceasefire impacts relations with Iraq and the dynamics in northeastern Syria, including the challenges faced by the Syrian Democratic Forces amid Turkish military pressures and evolving regional alliances.
Abdullah Ocalan's call for disarmament signifies a potential shift in Turkey's long-standing conflict with the PKK, inviting hopes for peace.
The political responses to Ocalan's statement reveal skepticism about Erdogan's motives, highlighting the complex dynamics of regional stability in Iraq and Syria.
Deep dives
Ocalan's Call for Peace and Its Implications
The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, recently urged the group to disarm and disband, marking a significant moment in the long-standing conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state. Ocalan's statement was read by a Kurdish politician, indicating its importance to Kurdish political aspirations and signaling a possible pathway to peace. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan supported this call, emphasizing the need to end the suffering caused by terrorism and indicating a shift in the Turkish government's approach to the PKK. This moment could potentially reshape the dynamics not only within Turkey but also in Iraq and Syria, where PKK affiliates are present.
The Political Landscape and Motivations Behind the Initiative
The resurgence of discussions surrounding the PKK reflects a changing political landscape in Turkey, particularly with Erdogan’s government exploring new initiatives for peace. The Turkish government perceives a weakened PKK as an opportunity to push for disarmament after years of military operations that have reduced the group's capabilities. Opposition parties, however, suspect that Erdogan may have ulterior electoral motives tied to garnering support ahead of upcoming elections, raising questions about the sincerity of these peace overtures. Despite this skepticism among some political factions, there is hope among the Kurdish population for a more peaceful resolution to the long-standing conflict.
Regional and International Ramifications
Ocalan's statement carries potential ramifications that extend beyond the borders of Turkey, impacting the PKK's presence in Iraq and Syria, where various affiliates operate. The declaration of a ceasefire by PKK leaders in Iraq shortly after Ocalan's announcement suggests a willingness among regional actors to engage in dialogue, which could stabilize relations between Turkey and its neighbors. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with historical links to the PKK, express a commitment to Ocalan's leadership while striving to maintain their military capabilities amid ongoing pressures from Turkey. The interplay between these groups and the evolving geopolitical landscape highlights the complexities of implementing a comprehensive and enduring peace agreement.
Challenges Ahead for Disarmament and Integration
The path forward for disarmament and integration of PKK fighters into civilian life is fraught with challenges, particularly regarding the demands of returning members and the broader Kurdish community. Questions remain regarding the status of Ocalan himself and the conditions necessary for a successful transition from combat to civilian life for PKK members, including potential amnesty for fighters in Turkey and elsewhere. Moreover, the integration of the SDF into a potential unified Syrian military poses significant hurdles amid ongoing negotiations with the Assad regime, complicating the regional dynamics further. Ultimately, the success of this peace initiative will hinge on effective communication among all stakeholders, mutual compromises, and clear roadmaps for the future.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year conflict with the PKK (a group designated as terrorist by Ankara and several Western capitals). They unpack how the PKK’s leadership in northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains has reacted to Öcalan’s call and how the conflict has influenced Ankara’s relations with Baghdad. They discuss implications for north-eastern Syria, where the PKK-linked Syrian Democratic Forces have clashed with Türkiye-backed groups, whether the efforts by Syria’s new leadership to integrate the SDF into a new state structure can address Ankara’s security concerns and Israel’s potential support for the SDF. They also assess how the public in Türkiye has reacted to the latest initiative to end the conflict and where the process might be headed next.