Bonus: The Marginal ROAS Revolution and How Meta's Algorithm Actually Works with Constantine Yurevich of SegmentStream

Apr 16, 2025

Constantine Yurevich, founder of SegmentStream, shares his expertise on marketing measurement and budget optimization. He emphasizes the importance of marginal ROAS over average ROAS for smarter ad spending. Constantine explains Meta's complex algorithms and how advertisers often misinterpret performance metrics, leading to lost profit. He introduces the concept of "destabilizing analytics" to assess campaign performance accurately. Plus, he advises marketers on when to diversify their strategies beyond Meta, particularly for brands spending over $1M/month.

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INSIGHT

Average ROAS Misleads Advertisers

Most marketers confuse average ROAS with marginal ROAS, which leads to bad budget decisions.
Marginal ROAS measures the profitability of additional spend, revealing diminishing returns ignored by average ROAS.

ADVICE

Use Controlled Budget Shifts

Avoid optimizing campaigns based on average ROAS and focus on marginal ROAS instead.
Use controlled budget shifts to destabilize analytics and measure true incremental impact.

INSIGHT

Marginal ROAS Beats Attribution Bias

Attribution models matter less when returns diminish quickly, like in retargeting and brand campaigns.
Marginal ROAS reveals negative returns even if last-click attribution shows good average ROAS.

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In this episode of the DTC Podcast, host Eric Dyck welcomes back Constantine Yurevich, founder of SegmentStream, for a tactical conversation on modern marketing measurement and how to truly optimize media budgets—especially on Meta.

Most brands are chasing growth using metrics that mislead, tools they don’t understand, and platforms that aren't incentivized to show the truth. Constantine breaks down exactly why most advertisers are flying blind and how to get back on course.

Key Takeaways:

ROAS ≠ Profit: Learn why marginal ROAS, not average ROAS, is the metric that should govern every media dollar.

The Meta Algorithm Explained: Get a clear look into how Meta's multi-layered ML models (account, pixel, event, creative) actually work—and how to feed them properly.

Controlled Budget Shifts: Constantine introduces the concept of “destabilizing analytics” to reveal real campaign performance.

Diminishing Returns in Practice: Why most brand search and retargeting campaigns look profitable on paper—but are losing money in reality.

Creative Testing Best Practice: Don't isolate creative tests. Instead, inject them into live campaigns to take advantage of trained models.

When to Diversify Beyond Meta: Not before ~$1M/month in spend. Most DTC brands diversify too early, sabotaging growth and signal integrity.

If you’re a growth marketer looking to scale Meta profitably, this episode is a must listen.

Learn more about SegmentStream:

SegmentStream Website – Learn how their marketing intelligence platform automates budget allocation using marginal ROAS

Constantine Yurevich on LinkedIn – Connect directly with Constantine for deep-dive insights and updates

Constantine on X (@weird_ceo) – Tactical posts, growth takes, and algorithm breakdowns

Marketing Science Newsletter on LinkedIn – Constantine’s unfiltered weekly deep dives into marketing measurement (https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/7189209704512860160/_

Previous DTC Podcast Episode with SegmentStream – Constantine declares that attribution is well and truly dead, so why not use AI to short-circuit the whole process?

Timestamps

00:00 – Why ROAS is misunderstood

02:45 – The real danger of average ROAS

06:30 – Understanding marginal ROAS vs. average ROAS

10:15 – Budget allocation mistakes DTC brands make

16:05 – How to avoid wasting spend on awareness campaigns

22:00 – Why Meta’s machine learning dominates

27:15 – How to train new conversion events properly

34:00 – When machine learning does exactly what you told it to (and that’s bad)

38:10 – The myth of omnichannel for lower-spend brands

41:55 – Why Meta wins and where other platforms fall short

44:10 – How to properly test creatives inside Meta

46:15 – Will AI replace media buyers? Constantine’s hot take

Hashtags

#MarketingAttribution #ROASExplained #PerformanceMarketing #MetaAds #MediaBuying #DTCMarketing #DigitalAdvertising #MarketingAI #EcommerceGrowth #SegmentStream #MarketingPodcast #PaidMediaStrategy #FacebookAds #GrowthMarketing

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