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Why Great Powers Sleepwalk to War — A Masterclass with Prof. Hugh White

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Nov 25, 2025

Guest

Hugh White

Hugh White, Australia's leading strategic thinker and Emeritus Professor at the Australian National University, dives into the lessons from 2,500 years of strategy. He discusses pivotal historical conflicts, exploring how miscalculations led to war and the implications for modern geopolitics, especially regarding China. White emphasizes the importance of understanding power dynamics and the failures of imagination among leaders. He reflects on how lessons from history can guide Australia and America's responses to shifting global orders.

04:31:32

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Episode notes

insights

INSIGHT

Plans Create Their Own Momentum

Military timetables and detailed plans can lock states into paths that become hard to reverse.
Technology and mobilization speed in 1914 constrained political options and amplified escalation risks.

insights

INSIGHT

Early Battles Wrote A War's Future

The first month of World War I shaped a stagnated, industrialised war of attrition.
Small battlefield contingencies (e.g., the Marne) determined whether the war became prolonged and trench-bound.

insights

INSIGHT

Blame Beyond A Single Leader

Hitler's atrocities mattered but the unresolved problem of Germany's place in Europe made large-scale conflict likely.
Taylor argues other powers share responsibility for failing to accommodate Germany after 1918.

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Why read ancient strategy: Peloponnesian War

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Mattingly’s Armada: decisions and miscalculation

29:08 • 12min

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Close reading and the drama of 16th-century diplomacy

AJP Taylor on Europe’s balance (1848–1918)

47:05 • 5min

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Entente, colonies and the road to 1914

52:28 • 4min

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Taylor on July 1914 and miscalculation

56:36 • 8min

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Explaining the Schlieffen Plan

01:05:00 • 5min

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Allies, timetables and the slide to war

01:10:10 • 15min

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Guns of August: first month dynamics

01:25:23 • 8min

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Contingency and battlefield chance at the Marne

01:33:12 • 12min

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AJP Taylor’s Origins of WWII thesis

01:44:53 • 7min

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Hitler opportunism versus structural failure

01:51:51 • 7min

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Versailles, status and the limits of punishment

01:59:20 • 22min

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E.H. Carr’s realism in the 20 Years Crisis

02:21:15 • 6min

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Peaceful change and the limits of appeasement

02:27:34 • 21min

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Michael Howard on Britain's continental dilemma

02:49:04 • 8min

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Implications for Australia of British choices

02:57:02 • 11min

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Kennan’s American Diplomacy and containment

03:07:55 • 7min

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Kennan: diplomacy, strategy and unintended decline

Neville Meaney: Australia’s Pacific security

03:26:00 • 6min

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Kissinger’s Diplomacy and post‑Cold War order

03:31:58 • 7min

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Kennedy on great‑power cycles

03:38:57 • 13min

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Why Europe-focused history matters today

03:51:45 • 9min

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Core lessons: power shifts, imagination, and choice

04:01:10 • 12min

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Australia’s strategic future and domestic change

The Search for Security in the Pacific

Neville Meaney

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The defeat of the Spanish Armada

The outbreak of the Peloponnesian War

Donald Kagan

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The Twenty Years' Crisis

1919-1939

Edward Hallett Carr

Published in 1939, Carr's seminal work analyzes the failures of the interwar international order, challenging utopian idealism and emphasizing power dynamics in international relations. The book established key principles of classical realism, arguing that moralizing without power consideration leads to political failure, and remains influential in IR theory for its critique of liberal internationalism.

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Diplomacy

Henry Kissinger

In this book, Henry Kissinger provides a sweeping history of diplomacy, focusing on the 20th century and the Western World. He discusses the concepts of balance of power, Realpolitik, and the differences in national styles of diplomacy. Kissinger draws from his own experiences as a key figure in U.S. foreign policy, including his negotiations with leaders such as de Gaulle, Nixon, Chou En-lai, Mao Tse-tung, Reagan, and Gorbachev. The book critiques various diplomatic approaches, including collective security and self-determination, and argues for a return to European-style realpolitik in U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War.

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The Origins of the Second World War

A. J. P. Taylor

In this influential book, A.J. P. Taylor examines the international politics and foreign policy that led to the outbreak of World War II. Taylor argues that Hitler was an opportunist without a thorough plan, and that the diplomatic mistakes of both the Allied and Axis powers contributed significantly to the war. He challenges the traditional 'Nuremberg Thesis' that Hitler was the sole culprit, instead highlighting the complexities and responsibilities of various nations and their leaders during the interwar period.

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The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

Paul Kennedy

In this book, Paul Kennedy examines the historical patterns of the rise and fall of great powers, including Greece, Rome, Spain, France, Germany, and England. He argues that the strength of a great power is relative to other powers and correlates strongly with available resources and economic durability. Kennedy introduces the concept of 'imperial overstretch,' where military commitments become unsustainable once a power loses its economic competitive edge. The book also predicts the decline of the United States and the Soviet Union and the rise of Japan and China, based on their economic and military strategies.

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The struggle for mastery in Europe

A. J. P. Taylor

A. J. P. Taylor's "The Struggle for Mastery in Europe" offers a compelling narrative of European power politics from 1848 to 1918. Taylor masterfully weaves together diplomatic history, social and economic factors, and the personalities of key leaders to illuminate the complex interplay of forces that shaped the continent's destiny. His analysis challenges traditional interpretations, offering fresh perspectives on the causes of World War I. The book remains a valuable resource for understanding the dynamics of great power competition and the long-term consequences of strategic choices. It serves as a reminder of the enduring relevance of historical context in analyzing contemporary international relations.

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THE CONTINENTAL COMMITMENT

HOWARD

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The Guns of August

Barbara W. Tuchman

In this landmark account, Barbara W. Tuchman re-creates the first month of World War I, tracing the events from the funeral of Edward VII to the battles on the Western and Eastern fronts. The book focuses on the political machinations and military strategies that led to the outbreak of war, highlighting the roles of key players and the inevitability of the conflict. Tuchman's narrative is known for its comprehensive and engaging portrayal of the period, making it a classic in historical literature.

#81204

July 1914

Sean McMeekin

In *July 1914: Countdown to War*, Sean McMeekin presents a gripping narrative of how a small group of statesmen manipulated the aftermath of Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination to trigger a long-awaited European conflict. McMeekin challenges traditional views by highlighting the roles of Russia and France in ensuring the inevitability of war. The book provides a detailed analysis of diplomatic maneuvers and decisions that led Europe into the Great War.

2,500 years of strategic history, 11 books, one afternoon.

Hugh White is Australia's foremost strategic thinker: former senior adviser to Defence Minister Kim Beazley and Prime Minister Bob Hawke, Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in Defence, inaugural Director of ASPI, and principal author of the 2000 Defence White Paper. He is now Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University.

Before this conversation, I asked Hugh for the eleven books that most shaped his thinking on strategy, international relations and defence policy. We work through them one by one — what each book argues, what it gets right and wrong, how it shaped his worldview — and use them to tackle the big questions: why great powers start disastrous wars, how international orders collapse, and how Australia and America should respond to the rise of China.

Episode resources

Hugh's strategy reading list: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-strategy-reading-list/
Hugh's 1993 Tathra note: https://josephnoelwalker.com/hugh-whites-tathra-note/

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