

Innovating and Deciding, for Companies and People
10 snips Feb 20, 2022
Annie Duke, an author and former professional poker player, shares her expertise on decision-making in high-stakes environments. She explores the balance between skill and luck, emphasizing the critical distinction between outcomes and the decision-making process. Duke discusses psychological barriers that stifle innovation and offers insights on learning from both wins and losses. She also highlights the impact of media narratives on public perception, advocating for a culture of probabilistic thinking to improve decision-making strategies.
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Super Bowl Play Call
- In Super Bowl XLIX, Pete Carroll's decision to pass instead of run with Marshawn Lynch was scrutinized.
- This highlights how outcomes influence our perception of decision quality, even when factors like the opposing team's skill are at play.
NFL & Analytics
- NFL teams are slow to adopt analytics because of the fear of non-consensus wrong decisions.
- Coaches prioritize avoiding criticism over statistically optimal plays.
Decision Matrix
- Marc Andreessen proposes a 2x2 matrix: consensus vs. non-consensus and right vs. wrong.
- Non-consensus wrong decisions are perceived as disastrous, while consensus wrong decisions are often overlooked.