We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network TIP146: Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Predicting (Business Podcast)
Jul 8, 2017
Learn the right framework for making correct forecasts and how to prevent confirmation bias for your investments. Discover why financial experts are storytellers rather than forecasters and why the best investors constantly change their opinion. Explore the concept of superforecasting and the characteristics of successful superforecasters. Understand the challenges of forecasting and the importance of diverse perspectives. Dive into the analytical approach of superforecasters using algorithms and probability analysis. Discuss the difficulty of reflecting on previous forecasts and the dangers of group think. Also, learn about the benefits and features of the Enhanced American Express Business Gold Card.
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
Superforecasting: The Art of Accurate Predictions
02:31 • 8min
Confirmation Bias and the Importance of Diverse Perspectives
10:54 • 4min
The Analytical Approach of Superforecasters
15:04 • 10min
Perpetual Beta
25:04 • 5min
The Fallibility of Forecasters and the Dangers of Group Think
30:05 • 11min
Benefits and Features of the Enhanced American Express Business Gold Card
40:39 • 2min