TIP146: Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Predicting (Business Podcast)
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
The Fallibility of Forecasters and the Dangers of Group Think
This chapter explores the challenges faced by forecasters in remembering past predictions and the influence of group think on forecasting. It emphasizes the importance of diverse perspectives and the dangers of consensus fallacy.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
- The right framework for making correct forecasts.
- How to prevent confirmation bias for your investments.
- Why financial experts are storytellers rather than forecasters.
- How and why the best investors constantly change their opinion.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members.
- Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock’s book, Superforcasting – Read reviews of this book.
- Preston, and Stig’s interview with investing legend Ed Thorp.
- Preston and Stig’s interview with well-renown value investor Guy Spier.
- Preston and Stig’s interview with Dr. Robert Cialdini.
- Preston and Stig’s discussion on Nassim Taleb’s book The Black Swan.
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