The Rest Is Politics: Leading 98. Nate Silver: Can we predict who will win the 2024 US election?
9 snips
Sep 15, 2024 
Nate Silver, a renowned forecaster and statistician, delves into the intricacies of predicting the 2024 US election. He draws fascinating parallels between poker and political betting, shedding light on how risk analysis plays a role in both fields. The discussion covers Elon Musk’s controversial endorsement of Donald Trump and the unpredictable dynamics affecting younger voters. Silver also explores the intersection of betting culture and democracy, revealing its impact on financial markets and political accountability.
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Poker and Baseball
- Nate Silver developed a baseball forecasting system while working as a consultant.
- He also played online poker, eventually earning more than his job.
Predictive Skills
- Building predictive models and thinking probabilistically are valuable skills.
- These skills, honed through baseball and poker, translate directly to political forecasting.
2016 Prediction
- Nate Silver's model gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning in 2016.
- He views predictions through a gambler's lens, considering odds relative to the consensus.