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15min chapter
98. Nate Silver: Can we predict who will win the 2024 US election?
Leading
Predicting Politics: Models and Realities
This chapter explores the parallels between predictive modeling in baseball and political forecasting, using Donald Trump's 2016 election as a case study to assess the reliability of polling data. It highlights the importance of understanding the nuances of odds, probabilities, and the impact of historical accuracy in shaping current electoral predictions for the 2024 U.S. election. Additionally, the chapter contrasts cultural perspectives among political elites and examines the influence of business success on political accountability.
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