Matt Clancy, an innovation economist and author, dives into the intriguing decline of productivity growth since the 1960s despite rising R&D investments. He explores whether society has become too risk-averse or if we've exhausted easier scientific advancements. Clancy discusses the limitations of traditional research funding and the need for experimental approaches to rejuvenate innovation. He also highlights the optimistic potential of AI in fostering collaboration and enhancing scientific productivity, proposing a more adventurous funding landscape.
The podcast highlights a cultural shift in the West from an embrace of rapid progress to a more cautious approach that may impede innovation.
It emphasizes the need for innovative funding models and experimentation in scientific research to reinvigorate productivity and breakthroughs.
Deep dives
The Shift in Cultural Attitudes Towards Progress
The podcast discusses a cultural shift in the Western perspective on progress and innovation, moving from a mindset that embraces rapid advancements to one that emphasizes caution and risk management. This change is believed to have significant implications for economic growth and societal development. The conversation explores the historical context, highlighting that during the Industrial Revolution, a belief in progress fueled the pursuit of practical improvements and economic transformation. It is suggested that this belief system served as a self-sustaining force, contrasting sharply with today's more cautious attitudes.
The Role of Language in Reflecting Societal Values
A study is highlighted that employs textual analysis to examine the language used in hundreds of thousands of books from the 15th to 17th centuries, seeking to quantify cultural shifts related to progress. The findings indicate a significant increase in language associated with progress, particularly in political economy and scientific texts. This growth in 'progress-oriented' language aligns with the theory proposed by economist Joel Mokir, suggesting that Britain's cultural environment was uniquely conducive to advancements during the Industrial Revolution. The contrast between historical and contemporary language trends underscores the concerns about the current decline in discussions around progressive ideas.
Challenges of Modern Research Productivity
The podcast addresses the declining productivity of research efforts despite significant increases in resources devoted to scientific inquiry over recent decades. While productivity growth has diminished, the amount of effort and funding for research has increased, indicating a mismatch between input and output. Various metrics, including clinical trials and publication rates, suggest that while researchers are active, the returns on this investment in terms of groundbreaking discoveries are less pronounced. This trend raises questions about the efficacy of the current research system and calls for a reevaluation of how scientific breakthroughs are pursued.
Innovative Approaches to Funding and Research
Innovative funding models and greater experimentation within the scientific community are proposed as necessary steps to revitalize research productivity. The discussion includes examples from venture capital practices that allow for more risky projects to be funded through less consensus-driven methods. Such practices could potentially encourage more novel and unconventional research endeavors, addressing the concerns that the scientific community is currently too conservative. The transformation of how science is funded and conducted could facilitate a new wave of breakthroughs and enhance the overall efficacy of research initiatives.
Productivity growth in the developed world has been on a downward trend since the 1960s. Meanwhile, gains in life expectancy have also slowed. And yet the number of dollars and researchers dedicated to R&D grows every year. In today’s episode, the FT’s Chief Data Reporter, John Burn-Murdoch, asks whether western culture has lost its previous focus on human progress and become too risk-averse, or whether the problem is simply that the low-hanging fruit of scientific research has already been plucked. He does so in conversation with innovation economist Matt Clancy, who is the author of the New Things Under the Sun blog, and a research fellow at Open Philanthropy, a non-profit foundation based in San Francisco that provides research grants.
John Burn-Murdoch writes a column each week for the Financial Times. You can find it here
Presented by John Burn-Murdoch. Produced by Edith Rousselot. The editor is Bryant Urstadt. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Audio mix and original music by Breen Turner. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.