GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution Butterfly Wings & Hurricanes: The GoodFellows & Andrew Roberts Revisit Historical Counterfactuals | GoodFellows | Hoover Institution
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Nov 1, 2024 
In this engaging discussion, Lord Andrew Roberts, a prominent historian and distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins leading scholars to explore fascinating historical counterfactuals. They ponder what if the American Revolution failed or if Lenin had never come to power, potentially leading to a Republican Russia. The conversation also delves into how Kennedy's survival might have altered U.S. policies and what a more isolated China could mean for global economics. Their insights highlight how tiny shifts can drastically reshape history.
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Value of Counterfactuals
- Counterfactual history helps us understand the past's uncertainty and the possibility of different outcomes.
- Historians should embrace "what if" questions, as they are essential for understanding cause and effect.
Saratoga Counterfactual
- The Battle of Saratoga in 1777 was a pivotal moment in the American Revolution.
- Had the British won, the revolution might have failed, potentially leading to a different North American political landscape.
Lenin Assassination Counterfactual
- Lenin's assassination in 1917 could have prevented the Bolshevik takeover and the global spread of communism.
- However, Russia's instability during World War I might have led to another totalitarian regime.
