Geopolitical Cousins The Rot of Iran
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Jan 16, 2026 Kamran Bokhari, a geopolitical analyst and Iran specialist, dives deep into the complexities of Iran's political landscape. He argues that the country is experiencing a slow decay rather than an imminent collapse, influenced by elite infighting and military power struggles. Kamran discusses the potential for civil unrest and outlines how internal dynamics shape Iran's regional ambitions. He raises alarming scenarios about succession risks following Khamenei's exit, emphasizing how Iran's instability could affect geopolitics from Israel to Central Asia.
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Slow Rot Not Sudden Collapse
- Iran is undergoing long-term institutional decay rather than imminent, cinematic collapse.
- Kamran Bokhari argues the regime will morph painfully with messy elite infighting and gradual erosion of authority.
Army vs. IRGC Determines Future
- The contest between the regular armed forces (Artesh) and the IRGC will shape Iran's direction going forward.
- If they fail to reconcile, Iran risks fragmentation, but cooperation could produce a pragmatic, altered system.
Watch For A Front‑Loaded Succession
- Expect succession planning rather than open chaos; the regime prefers front-loading succession to avoid a public death event.
- Monitor signals of an orderly handover as they may indicate elite attempts to stabilize the state.
