Civil War Risk and Ethnic Fragmentation

Iran isn’t on the brink of some cinematic collaps - it’s rotting in place. Kamran Bokhari joins the boys to address the lazy “regime survives vs. regime falls” binary and looks at the reality of regime change: elite infighting, military power, succession chaos, and the slow erosion of state authority. Kamran lays out why decay, not revolution, is the base case - and why that mess matters far beyond Iran’s borders, reshaping regional power from Israel to Central Asia.

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Timestamps:

(00:49) - Introducing Kamran and the Iranian Context

(01:43) - Iran's Political Landscape and Regime Stability

(05:03) - Historical Context and Regime Evolution

(09:06) - Internal Dynamics and Military Influence

(12:36) - Potential for Change and Succession

(16:40) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook

(24:52) - Economic Interests and Sanctions

(33:58) - Regional Influence and Strategic Interests

(45:10) - US Geostrategy and Burden Sharing

(46:08) - National Security Strategy and Spheres of Influence

(46:56) - Iran's Regional Influence and Internal Dynamics

(49:11) - Potential Civil War in Iran

(56:21) - Historical Context and Ethnic Composition of Iran

(01:02:19) - Geopolitical Implications of Iran's Situation

(01:11:39) - Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence

(01:24:33) - Final Thoughts and Broader Geopolitical Issues

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro