In this enlightening conversation, Professor S. Jay Olshansky, a public health expert and author of a key paper on life extension, delves into the science of human longevity. He discusses the remarkable increase in life expectancy from 47 to 79 years and the biological hurdles that still limit radical life extension. The dialogue critically examines how innovations in health have improved survival rates, yet highlights the complex interplay of aging, disease, and societal factors that challenge further progress. Olshansky humorously explores theoretical anatomical changes for better longevity, underscoring the need for scientific rigor amidst speculative claims.
The dramatic increase in life expectancy over the last century is primarily attributed to advancements in public health and sanitation.
Skepticism remains regarding radical life extension beyond current limits due to intrinsic biological factors and lack of significant progress in lifespan increases.
Deep dives
The Historical Context of Longevity
The podcast outlines the significant changes in human life expectancy over the past few centuries, especially since the 1800s. One key point is the dramatic reduction in child mortality rates, which historically hovered around 50% in many civilizations but have plummeted to 0.3% in modern countries like Iceland, Finland, and Japan. Furthermore, advancements in public health, sanitation, and medicine have contributed to an increase in average life expectancy in America from 47 years in 1900 to 79 years today. This remarkable progress raises questions about the potential for further life extension beyond the current limits.
The Debate on Future Longevity
A significant discussion revolves around the prospects of radical life extension and whether humans can achieve lifespans of 150 years or more. Professor Stephen Austad expresses skepticism, citing the lack of progress in extending human life since the record of 122 years set by Jean Calment has remained unbroken for decades. This raises concerns about whether humans have reached a biological limit that may hinder significant increases in lifespan. The podcast emphasizes that while historical progress was transformative, the challenges we face today in extending life further are fundamentally different.
The Role of Public Health in Longevity
The importance of public health advancements is highlighted as a primary driver for increased human lifespan. Innovations like indoor plumbing, refrigeration, and improved sanitation have dramatically altered living conditions, effectively reducing risks that previously contributed to early mortality. The accessible nature of these public health measures has led to substantial gains in life expectancy, as many people today live in environments that support longer, healthier lives. The discussion notes that these public health improvements might be equally, if not more, crucial than the development of specific medical interventions in extending human life.
Biological Limits and Future Prospects
The podcast also addresses the intrinsic biological limitations that hinder further longevity breakthroughs, emphasizing the importance of understanding aging itself. Professor S.J. Olshansky points out that while significant medical advances have manufactured additional survival time for many, they may not achieve profound increases in average life expectancy. The focus is shifting towards studying exceptionally long-lived individuals to uncover genetic factors that contribute to longevity. This exploration could offer practical insights for addressing aging processes and improving healthspan, enhancing the quality of longevity for future generations.
In 1900, the average US life expectancy was 47 years old. That's the current age of Tom Brady, Ryan Reynolds, and Shakira. But extraordinary advances in medicine and public health have surged lifespans in the US and throughout the world. The average American currently lives to about 79 years old. How long can this progress continue? As we have gotten so much better at allowing people to live to old age, how much progress have we made at confronting this ultimate boss of longevity? Today’s guest is Professor S. Jay Olshansky, from the school of public health at the University of Illinois at Chicago. We talk about progress and stasis in the most important science project in human history: how to increase human life.
If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.
Host: Derek Thompson
Guest: S. Jay Olshansky
Producer: Devon Baroldi
LINKS:
"Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century" [link]
"If Humans Were Built to Last," an illustration of what people would look like if they were optimally designed to live to 100 [link]
"Child and Infant Mortality," from Our World in Data [link]