Top Traders Unplugged

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

34 snips
Jan 28, 2026
Guest
Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins, Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard and former Treasury adviser, challenges the consensus on growth and inflation. He argues policy stimulus, supply constraints and term‑premia shifts could reaccelerate growth and spark overheating. Discussions cover Fed credibility, Japan’s yield normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot and China’s cautious rebalancing.
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INSIGHT

K-Shape Consensus Is Misreading The Cycle

  • The widespread K-shaped economy consensus is likely wrong and underestimates incoming policy stimulus.
  • Dario Perkins expects bottom-of-K recovery and a stronger global growth rebound this year.
ADVICE

Position For A Turning Fiscal Impulse

  • Anticipate a fiscal impulse pivot in the US as tariff tightening earlier fades and tax cuts start to boost growth.
  • Position for stronger growth and potential near-term inflation as stimulus arrives.
INSIGHT

Policy Is Betting On An AI Productivity Fairy

  • The administration is pushing policies to run the economy hot while relying on an AI productivity narrative to justify easing.
  • Perkins warns this mix raises the risk of renewed inflation rather than sustained disinflation.
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