Optimistic near‑term, overheating later

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks and context

02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations

05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny

08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects

11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure

17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair

26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative

35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate

39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk

46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic myths

49:46 - Europe’s fiscal pivot and growth outlook

53:28 - Defense spending as an industrial catalyst

58:13 - China’s rebalancing challenge

01:00:29 - Optimism, overheating, and how the cycle may end

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