GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins
Top Traders Unplugged
Term premium likely to widen
He expects rising term premia as deficits, supply shocks and doubts about central bank credibility increase bond insurance costs.
In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks and context
02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations
05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny
08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects
11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure
17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair
26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative
35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate
39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk
46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic myths
49:46 - Europe’s fiscal pivot and growth outlook
53:28 - Defense spending as an industrial catalyst
58:13 - China’s rebalancing challenge
01:00:29 - Optimism, overheating, and how the cycle may end
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