Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
Links:
Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar
01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets
03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness
05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster
06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak
07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows
08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth
09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well
11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples
12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows
13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase
14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity
15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian
15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed
16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays
17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now
17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds
18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum
19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT
23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term
25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning
27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%
28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed
29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena
30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June
31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%
32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves
35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did
36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather
37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs
38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven
40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds
40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine
42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies
42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia
43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates
44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs
45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking
The Julia La Roche Show 
