Inflation: Conflicting Dynamics and Fed Dilemma

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. 

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar

01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets

03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness

05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster

06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak

07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows

08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth

09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well

11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples

12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows

13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase

14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity

15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian

15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed

16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays

17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now

17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds

18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum

19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT

23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term

25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning

27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%

28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed

29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena

30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June

31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%

32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves

35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did

36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather

37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs

38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven

40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds

40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine

42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies

42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia

43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates

44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs

45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking