The Trajectory RAND’s Joel Predd - Competitive and Cooperative Dynamics of AGI (US-China AGI Relations, Episode 4)
Sep 26, 2025
Joel Predd, a senior engineer at RAND Corporation and co-author of influential work on AGI national security, dives into the competitive yet cooperative dynamics of AGI between the US and China. He emphasizes the need to treat AGI as a credible but uncertain force and discusses five critical national security challenges. The conversation explores how AGI could reshape our future, the risks of loss of control, and the importance of robust government-lab relationships. Predd provides practical recommendations for policymakers, urging proactive strategies and crisis preparedness.
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AGI Is Credible And Deeply Uncertain
- Treat AGI as technically credible but deeply uncertain across timelines, paradigms, and impacts.
- If it arrives, it will be utterly transformational with unprecedented opportunities and risks.
Belief In AGI Often Requires A Personal Journey
- People arrive at taking AGI seriously via different personal journeys and evidence thresholds.
- Policymakers often need time and concrete signals to update beliefs and act.
Five Problems Shape US–China Dynamics
- The RAND 'five hard national security problems' show distinct areas for competition and cooperation between the U.S. and China.
- Some threats (e.g., AGI-enabled terrorism) create shared incentives to coordinate despite broader rivalry.