Scenarios for Positive Futures and Preserving Decision Space

This is an interview with Joel Predd, a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation and co-author of RAND’s work on “five hard national security problems from AGI,”.

In this conversation, Joel lays out a sober frame for leaders: treat AGI as technically credible but deeply uncertain; assume it will be transformational if it arrives; and recognize that the pace of progress is outstripping our capacity for governance.

This is the fourth installment of our "US-China AGI Relations" series - where we explore pathways to achieving international AGI cooperation while avoiding conflicts and arms races.

This episode referred to the following other essays and resources:
Artificial General Intelligence's Five Hard National Security Problems: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3691-4.html?
Types of AI Disasters – Uniting and Dividing: https://danfaggella.com/disaster/

Listen to this episode on The Trajectory Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trajectory/id1739255954

Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Ojg9l5q-gao

See the full article from this episode: https://danfaggella.com/predd1

…

There are three main questions we cover here on the Trajectory:

1. Who are the power players in AGI and what are their incentives?
2. What kind of posthuman future are we moving towards, or should we be moving towards?
3. What should we do about it?

If this sounds like it's up your alley, then be sure to stick around and connect:

-- Blog: danfaggella.com/trajectory
-- X: x.com/danfaggella
-- LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/danfaggella
-- Newsletter: bit.ly/TrajectoryTw
-- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@trajectoryai