The Investopedia Express with Caleb Silver
Claudia Sahm on the "Sahm Rule", and the Health of the Economy Today
Apr 1, 2024
Economist Claudia Sahm discusses the 'Sahm Rule' for recession prediction using unemployment rates. The podcast also covers market trends, crypto highs, cocoa price surge, economic forecasts, and the battle at Disney over streaming profits. Additionally, it explores opportunity costs in economics for career starters and the impact of Bitcoin halving on the cryptocurrency market.
33:34
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Quick takeaways
- Claudia Sahm created the 'Sahm Rule' as a reliable indicator for impending recessions based on rising unemployment rates.
- Extreme weather conditions in West Africa have caused cocoa prices to double, impacting chocolate makers and potentially leading to consumer price hikes.
Deep dives
Recent Stock Market Performance
The S&P 500 and Dow industrials closed the first quarter of 2019 with significant gains, marking their best performances in years. The S&P 500 gained 10.2%, while the Dow 30 saw a 5.6% increase. The NASDAQ also showed a strong uptrend with a 9.1% gain. Despite these record highs, concerns linger about valuations being historically high.
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