Holly Berkley Fletcher, a former Senior Africa Analyst at the CIA and a Sudan conflict expert, sheds light on the tragic war in Sudan. She discusses the initial optimism that followed Omar al-Bashir's ousting in 2019 and the ensuing power struggles among military factions. The episode delves into the severe humanitarian crisis, the dynamics of regional powers like the UAE and Egypt, and how civilians continue to resist amidst chaos. Fletcher also critiques U.S. mediation efforts, emphasizing the need for more attention to the plight of Sudanese refugees.
The conflict in Sudan reflects deep-seated divisions among military factions and ethnic communities, complicating potential resolutions and peace efforts.
The humanitarian crisis has intensified, with millions displaced and significant loss of life, exacerbated by regional influences and ongoing violence.
Deep dives
The Complexity of Sudan's Conflict
The conflict in Sudan is characterized by a duality between the military and paramilitary forces, leading to a complex and multifaceted crisis. The military's unwillingness to engage in peace talks exacerbates the situation, with both sides viewing the conflict as a zero-sum game. Early optimism for peace following the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 has quickly eroded due to the military's consolidation of power and the breakdown of the transitional government. This struggle reflects deep-seated divisions not only between the military factions but also among various ethnic and civilian groups, making resolution increasingly challenging.
Deteriorating Humanitarian Conditions
The humanitarian situation in Sudan has drastically deteriorated, resulting in widespread suffering and displacement. Estimates suggest nearly 20,000 deaths, though the true toll is likely higher due to limited access and ongoing violence, particularly in the capital of Khartoum. Regions such as Darfur continue to experience severe violence, with claims of genocide targeting certain ethnic communities. About 10 million people have been displaced, exacerbating conditions in neighboring regions like Chad and Egypt, which themselves struggle with stability and resources.
The Role of Regional Influences
Regional powers like the UAE and Egypt significantly influence the dynamics of the conflict in Sudan, complicating international efforts for resolution. The UAE has been implicated in supporting the paramilitary forces through financial and military assistance, effectively fueling the conflict. Meanwhile, Egypt maintains historical ties with the military but has taken a more neutral stance recently due to its own financial constraints. The involvement of these regional actors underscores the complexity of the conflict and highlights the challenges faced by the international community in finding effective solutions.
Civilians' Struggles and Political Disorganization
The role of civilians in Sudan’s political landscape illustrates both their potential and the obstacles they face in organizing amidst chaos. The grassroots protests that led to Bashir's overthrow in 2019 showcased proactive civilian engagement but have since struggled to coalesce into a unified political force. Current civilian factions are hindered by disorganization and infighting, often aligning along the same divisions as the military and paramilitary forces. While civilians continue to provide aid and support within their communities, their lack of cohesive leadership limits their political influence and ability to negotiate in times of conflict.
Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor and Georgetown professor Daniel Byman sits down with Holly Berkley Fletcher, a former Senior Africa Analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, to discuss the complex and tragic situation in Sudan and her recent Lawfare article on the subject, “The Sudan War and the Limits of American Power.” They talk about the initial hope following the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the subsequent military conflicts in Sudan, the country’s humanitarian crisis, the role of regional powers, and the challenges faced by civilians and the international community in addressing the ongoing violence and suffering.
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