The Seen and the Unseen - hosted by Amit Varma Ep 323: SVB, Banking and the State of the Economy
Island War Anecdote
- Amit Varma opens with Walter Lippmann's anecdote about islanders unaware of a war.
- This illustrates how information lags can lead to misconceptions, even in crucial matters.
SVB Narratives
- Public narratives around SVB's collapse are simplistic and often miss the bigger picture.
- Understanding requires going beyond surface-level explanations like blaming specific groups or politicians.
SVB Collapse
- Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) invested in long-dated bonds while holding short-term deposits, creating a duration risk.
- When interest rates rose, these bonds lost value, and sophisticated depositors withdrew funds rapidly, causing a bank run.
What happened at SVB? Is our banking system in crisis? What are we to make of our economy? Ajay Shah and Mohit Satynanand join Amit Varma in episode 323 of The Seen and the Unseen to tackle these complicated questions and more. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Ajay Shah (Twitter, Substack) and Mohit Satyanand (Twitter, Substack). 2. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. 3. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Mohit Satyanand: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 4. Ajay Shah on currencies and crypto (1, 2, 3), an RBI misstep, the third globalisation, NBFCs and banks (1, 2), digital payments, the resolution corporation (1, 2), interest rate mismatch, voting in the MPC, the importance of low and stable inflation and the mispricing of risks. 5. Two Economic Crises (2008 & 2019) ā Episode 135 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Mohit Satynanand). 6. The State of Our Economy -- Episode 252 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra and Mohit Satyanand). 7. The Importance of Finance -- Episode 125 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 8. The Art and Science of Economic Policy ā Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah). 9. In Service of the Republic ā Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 10. Josh Felman Tries to Make Sense of the World -- Episode 321 of The Seen and the Unseen. 11. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms ā Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 12. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao ā Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 13. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia ā Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 14. The Long Road From Neeyat to Neeti ā Episode 313 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley). 15. Elite Imitation in Public Policy ā Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 16. Premature Imitation and Indiaās Flailing State ā Shruti Rajagopalan & Alexander Tabarrok. 17. Public Opinion ā Walter Lippman. 18. The World Outside and the Pictures in our Heads ā Walter Lippman. 19. Watching the Wheels -- John Lennon. (Amit also loves Chris Cornell's version.) 20. Youāre Missing ā Bruce Springsteen. 21. The End of Silicon Valley (Bank) -- Ben Thompson on Stratechery. 22. This Banking Crisis Wonāt Wreck the Economy -- Tyler Cowen. 23. SVB Took the Wrong Risks -- Matt Levine. 24. Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market -- Walter Bagehot. 25. Moral Hazard and the Cantillon Effect. 26. Beware of the Useful Idiots ā Amit Varma. 27. The Use of Knowledge in Society ā Friedrich Hayek. 28. Austrian Economics: An Introduction -- Steven Horwitz. 29. Friedrich Hayek: The ideas and influence of the libertarian economist -- Eamonn Butler. 30.The End of History? ā Francis Fukuyamaās essay. 31. The End of History and the Last Man ā Francis Fukuyamaās book. 32. Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology -- Chris Miller. 33. The Double āThank-Youā Moment ā John Stossel. 34. Why Pramila Devi Uses Her Chappals Sparingly -- Sayantan Bera. 35. Where Are the Customers' Yachts? -- Fred Schwed Jr. 36. South India Would Like to Have a Word ā Episode 320 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nilakantan RS). 37. Jimi Hendrix on YouTube Music, Spotify and Wikipedia. 38. Neil Young on YouTube Music, Spotify and Wikipedia. Check out Amitās online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. Itās free! Episode art: āThe Madness of Moneyā by Simahina.