Happy heuristics: Shock-resistant leader routines and rules of thumb for a complex world.

Theory versus practice

Apr 4, 2022
The hosts dive into the debate between theory and practice, showcasing practical heuristics for uncertain decision-making. They highlight the value of flawed prototypes, emphasizing how imperfect products foster genuine learning. Jamie warns of the limits of testing, especially when some experiments can't be undone. The conversation touches on the influence of time and luck in evaluating concepts like Bitcoin and NFTs. Ultimately, they argue for clear learning goals and the effectiveness of unconventional habits, proving that real-world results often trump theoretical elegance.
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INSIGHT

Practical Results Trump Clever Theory

  • Practical success beats elegant theory: if something works, its label of 'stupid' loses meaning.
  • Jeff uses the Vietnam mess-hall rule to show empirical results should override purely intellectual judgments.
ANECDOTE

The Green Lumber Trader Story

  • Jeff recounts Nassim Taleb's 'green lumber' story about a successful trader who misunderstood his market's term yet profited massively.
  • The anecdote underscores that observable competence can exist without formal explanations or orthodox knowledge.
ADVICE

Run Small Tests To Let Reality Decide

  • Test to learn: run deliberate, small experiments to let reality adjudicate competing ideas.
  • Use temporary, limited trials to separate product validity from charismatic salesmanship or theory.
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