The CFO Case for Probabilistic Forecasting With AI | Bruno Annicq

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Bruno Annicq, CFO of Wellhub (formerly Gympass), to unpack a practical finance playbook built around cash discipline, sustainable growth, and simplicity. Bruno explains how he rebuilt forecasting using an AI-driven, probabilistic ensemble model, moving teams beyond single-scenario planning. They also dig into his EMPOWER planning framework, usable OKRs, and why tighter alignment between finance, HR, and wellbeing is becoming a durable lever for long-term performance.

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SPONSORS:

RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com

Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj

Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run

Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai

Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

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LINKS:

Bruno on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bannicq/

Wellhub: https://wellhub.com/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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RELATED EPISODES:

“Run Toward a Tough Market” — Developing the Hard and Soft Skills To Be a Great Finance Leader

https://youtu.be/iNHbkcG7YEo

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:02:19 Sponsors — RightRev, Rillet, Tabs

00:06:43 Accidental CFO Origin Story

00:07:34 Consulting to Operations Pivot

00:08:12 Why Finance Clicked for Bruno

00:09:28 McKinsey Prioritization in Real World

00:10:02 Eisenhower Matrix and Prioritization

00:11:08 Investing in Non-Urgent Work

00:13:30 Lessons From AOL Reinvention

00:16:10 Sponsors — Abacum, Brex, Metronome

00:20:01 Career Growth Through Hard Problems

00:20:52 Broadening Skills Through Change

00:23:12 Five Core Finance Principles

00:24:02 Cash Is King

00:25:14 Driving Sustainable Growth

00:26:01 No Surprises and Forecasting

00:26:07 Finance as Business Enabler

00:27:22 Less Is More Philosophy

00:28:47 Hardest Principle: Less Is More

00:29:46 Deterministic vs Probabilistic Forecasting

00:31:11 Marketplace Volatility and Forecast Error

00:32:10 Ensemble Models Explained

00:33:37 Forecast Accuracy Gains

00:34:53 Building Models In-House

00:36:46 Why Explainability Matters

00:37:48 Empower Framework Introduction

00:47:47 Urgency, Compounding, Long-Term Thinking

00:48:10 Advice to Younger Self

00:50:06 Finance Stack and Expense Stories

00:52:51 Credits

#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFO #FinanceLeadership #Forecasting #AIinFinance