How Math Is Used to Manipulate You - Dr. Norman Fenton & Dr. Martin Neil - DS Pod #295

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Oct 31, 2024

Dr. Norman Fenton and Dr. Martin Neil, both professors at Queen Mary University of London, dive into the misuse of mathematics in various fields, from military technology to health sciences. They discuss how Bayesian statistics can enhance reliability assessments and help unpack statistical misinterpretations in legal cases, particularly concerning forensic evidence. The conversation also tackles the manipulation of pandemic data and its implications for public trust in health narratives, urging for critical thinking and transparency in the statistical discourse.

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ANECDOTE

Rebellious Academic

Norman Fenton recalls Martin Neil's rebellious academic behavior at a software engineering seminar in Glasgow.
Fenton admired Neil's dissenting views and considered him a role model.

INSIGHT

Bayes and Reliability

Bayesian statistics helps assess reliability, even with limited data, by combining data with expert judgment.
This is crucial for complex systems like software or those without extensive historical data, such as the Airbus A320's fly-by-wire system.

INSIGHT

Bayesian Updating

Bayesian statistics updates beliefs about uncertain events by incorporating new evidence.
This contrasts with traditional statistical methods relying on large, homogeneous datasets.

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Dr. Norman Fenton and Dr. Martin Neil are mathematicians from Queen Mary University of London who are experts in the unreasonable power of mathematics. For example - it is possible to produce an algorithm that will predict the likelihood that a piece of hardware or software will fail - and then to use that information to predict the stability of much larger systems - military vehicles, fly-by-wire software for aircraft, medical technologies. Along the way, they developed a rare intuition for statistics and probability, which allowed them to start to see places where statistical analysis was being done in such a slapdash way that it was leading people to believe things that… didn’t make a lot of sense. At first they attributed this simply to ignorance, but over the last few years underwent a dramatic transformation. They went from believing in the standard narrative, to questioning most of it. Their journey on this path is detailed in the book “Fighting Goliath,” and the full conversation is too hot for this platform - so can be heard wherever you listen to podcasts by looking for DemystifySci #295 Sign up for our Patreon and get episodes early + join our weekly Patron Chat https://bit.ly/3lcAasB AND rock some Demystify Gear to spread the word: https://demystifysci.myspreadshop.com/ OR do your Amazon shopping through this link: https://amzn.to/4g2cPVV (00:00:00) Go! (00:05:05) Academic Background and Bayesian Applications (00:09:10) History and Basics of Bayesian Statistics (00:15:34) Skepticism and Statistical Reasoning (00:20:29) Bayesian Applications in Real-World Problems (00:23:26) Engineering Complexity (00:27:09) Probabilities in Legal Cases (00:34:05) Challenges in Legal Reasoning (00:45:56) Monty Hall Problem and Probability Misunderstanding (00:50:18) Flaws in Traditional Statistical Education (00:55:22) Misinterpretation and Issues with Statistical Testing #Statistics, #BayesianAnalysis, #Probability, #LegalReasoning, #DataMisinterpretation, #StatisticalFallacies, #BayesianStatistics, #MontyHallProblem, #PValueProblems, #RealWorldApplications, #ComplexSystems, #ProbabilisticThinking, #EngineeringReliability, #StatisticalEducation, #MisunderstoodStatistics, #BayesianLogic, #LegalStatistics, #MathematicalReasoning, #sciencepodcast, #longformpodcast Check our short-films channel, @DemystifySci: https://www.youtube.com/c/DemystifyingScience AND our material science investigations of atomics, @MaterialAtomics https://www.youtube.com/@MaterialAtomics Join our mailing list https://bit.ly/3v3kz2S PODCAST INFO: Anastasia completed her PhD studying bioelectricity at Columbia University. When not talking to brilliant people or making movies, she spends her time painting, reading, and guiding backcountry excursions. Shilo also did his PhD at Columbia studying the elastic properties of molecular water. When he's not in the film studio, he's exploring sound in music. They are both freelance professors at various universities. - Blog: http://DemystifySci.com/blog - RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/2be66934/podcast/rss - Donate: https://bit.ly/3wkPqaD - Swag: https://bit.ly/2PXdC2y SOCIAL: - Discord: https://discord.gg/MJzKT8CQub - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DemystifySci - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/DemystifySci/ - Twitter: https://twitter.com/DemystifySci MUSIC: -Shilo Delay: https://g.co/kgs/oty671