Dr. Norman Fenton and Dr. Martin Neil are mathematicians from Queen Mary University of London who are experts in the unreasonable power of mathematics. For example - it is possible to produce an algorithm that will predict the likelihood that a piece of hardware or software will fail - and then to use that information to predict the stability of much larger systems - military vehicles, fly-by-wire software for aircraft, medical technologies. Along the way, they developed a rare intuition for statistics and probability, which allowed them to start to see places where statistical analysis was being done in such a slapdash way that it was leading people to believe things that… didn’t make a lot of sense. At first they attributed this simply to ignorance, but over the last few years underwent a dramatic transformation. They went from believing in the standard narrative, to questioning most of it. Their journey on this path is detailed in the book “Fighting Goliath,” and the full conversation is too hot for this platform - so can be heard wherever you listen to podcasts by looking for DemystifySci #295
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(00:00:00) Go!
(00:05:05) Academic Background and Bayesian Applications
(00:09:10) History and Basics of Bayesian Statistics
(00:15:34) Skepticism and Statistical Reasoning
(00:20:29) Bayesian Applications in Real-World Problems
(00:23:26) Engineering Complexity
(00:27:09) Probabilities in Legal Cases
(00:34:05) Challenges in Legal Reasoning
(00:45:56) Monty Hall Problem and Probability Misunderstanding
(00:50:18) Flaws in Traditional Statistical Education
(00:55:22) Misinterpretation and Issues with Statistical Testing
#Statistics, #BayesianAnalysis, #Probability, #LegalReasoning, #DataMisinterpretation, #StatisticalFallacies, #BayesianStatistics, #MontyHallProblem, #PValueProblems, #RealWorldApplications, #ComplexSystems, #ProbabilisticThinking, #EngineeringReliability, #StatisticalEducation, #MisunderstoodStatistics, #BayesianLogic, #LegalStatistics, #MathematicalReasoning, #sciencepodcast, #longformpodcast
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PODCAST INFO: Anastasia completed her PhD studying bioelectricity at Columbia University. When not talking to brilliant people or making movies, she spends her time painting, reading, and guiding backcountry excursions. Shilo also did his PhD at Columbia studying the elastic properties of molecular water. When he's not in the film studio, he's exploring sound in music. They are both freelance professors at various universities.
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