SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

37 snips

Jan 17, 2026

Join quantitative investor Nick Baltas as he delves into the evolving world of trend following. With insights on why signals can overshadow narratives, he highlights the unexpected impact of trading speed and universe choice on performance in 2025. Nick cautions against overreacting to past results and underscores the value of discipline in strategy. He also unpacks new research on nonlinear momentum and the mechanics of trend-following during market stress, revealing the critical role of timing and diversification.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

ANECDOTE

Hectic New Year In Greece

Nick spent New Year in Greece where airport closures delayed his family return by four days.
He also mentioned kids had stomach bugs, making the start of the year hectic but manageable.

INSIGHT

Narratives May Precede Price Formation

Nick is exploring narrative and thematic data to see if information clouds can signal future price formation.
He thinks harvesting narrative intensity before price moves might yield predictive signal value.

ADVICE

Avoid Prediction; Trust The Process

Niels warns against embedding predictions into trend models and favors disciplined reaction to price.
He advises staying process-driven rather than trying to forecast narratives like Yen moves from rate changes.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome

01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026

03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation

07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets

09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention

10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following

12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025

15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year

18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design

23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead

31:08 - Institutional views on trend following

40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research

50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis behavior

56:35 - What theory explains about trend robustness

59:00 - Closing thoughts and next episode

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer