Autonomy of Trend theoretical paper

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome

01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026

03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation

07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets

09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention

10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following

12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025

15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year

18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design

23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead

31:08 - Institutional views on trend following

40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research

50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis behavior

56:35 - What theory explains about trend robustness

59:00 - Closing thoughts and next episode

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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