SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas
Top Traders Unplugged
Non-Linear Time Series Momentum paper
Nick explains the non-linear momentum paper, sigmoid-style sizing and using neural networks to let data define nonlinearities.
Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and welcome
01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026
03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation
07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets
09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention
10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following
12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025
15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year
18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design
23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead
31:08 - Institutional views on trend following
40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research
50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis behavior
56:35 - What theory explains about trend robustness
59:00 - Closing thoughts and next episode
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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