The Dissenter

#1187 Peter Turchin: The Collapse of Complex Societies, Elite Overproduction, and Social Unrest

25 snips
Dec 11, 2025
Guest
Peter Turchin
In this discussion, Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist and author, explores the dynamics behind the rise and fall of complex societies. He delves into the concept of elite overproduction and its link to social unrest, providing insights into rising inequality and its historical context. Turchin also forecasts potential political upheavals in the 2020s and examines the revolutionary movements, particularly the MAGA phenomenon, as a counter-elite response. He suggests reforms for nonviolent resolution of political conflict, drawing lessons from past redistribution efforts.
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INSIGHT

Competition Drove State-Scale Growth

  • Cultural multilevel selection explains why larger polities evolved via inter-polity competition.
  • Warfare and competition selected for institutional complexity that sustained bigger societies.
INSIGHT

Collapse From Social Dynamics, Not Just Complexity

  • Structural-demographic theory sees collapse drivers as social forces, not inevitable complexity overload.
  • Accumulated institutions generally increase resilience, but societies still face periodic instability waves.
INSIGHT

History Shows 200–300 Year Instability Waves

  • Historical data show recurring centuries-long boom-bust waves of political violence.
  • Turchin's group documents lethal political events clustering roughly every 200–300 years.
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